Recent volatility and rising volume help identify coins likely to move sharply over the next two days. They do not reliably say which way the move will go.
The study compared coins at each day's top and bottom deciles against the same day's event rate. Select a period to see how the measured lift changed.
Swipe across charts to see all labels.
Event rate divided by that day's baseline; 1× means no difference.
Reading: The highest-volatility and widest-range coins had roughly twice the same-day baseline risk of a 12% move. The quietest coins were below it. High volume alone showed a smaller, still consistent lift.
Share of selected coins with a 12% or larger two-day move across nine forward test periods.
Finding: The boosted watch's daily top ten reached 29.9%, versus 8.6% for a typical coin on those test dates. A simple volatility rank reached 26.9%, leaving a 3.0 percentage-point gap. This is a modest gain over that simpler ranking.
Among flagged coins that made a large move, the historical split was near even.
Finding: 52% of flagged large movers rose. A separate direction model's AUC ranged from 0.41 to 0.68 across ten half-years and fell below chance in three; no stable direction edge was established.
Top-decile lift over the same-day baseline, split into 2021–23 and 2024–26. Larger values mean a more concentrated large-move rate.
Finding: Recent volatility, range, and volume all exceeded their same-day baseline in both eras. The full watch's worst forward half-year was 19.7% versus 7.1% for the typical coin. The original report did not publish all nine period counts.
All plotted values come from FCS's checked-in signals-worker/docs/MISSED_MOVES.md, section “What actually comes before a big move,” and the associated scripts/big-move-watch.py method. The study covers March 2021 through September 2026 and was documented after the September 24, 2026 research request. This page was reviewed September 29, 2026. Figures were checked against the report and watch code in the local FCS repository. The underlying coin-day archive was not available for an independent recomputation.
| Measure | 2021–23 top | 2021–23 bottom | 2024–26 top | 2024–26 bottom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day volatility | 2.1 | 0.36 | 2.6 | 0.17 |
| 10-day range | 2.1 | 0.38 | 2.5 | 0.24 |
| Last-day move size | 2.0 | 0.79 | 2.4 | 0.67 |
| Volume vs 20-day median | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |